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2021 Housing Crash in YOUR CITY? Look at these 3 Metrics…
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Housing Crash coming to YOUR CITY in 2021? Find out by analyzing these 3 Housing Market Metrics…
The US Housing Market is in a big BUBBLE here in mid-2021. Home prices are at sky-high levels relative to wages, and many home buyers and real estate investors feel priced out of the market. A potential crash could wipe 20-25% off home prices across the country.
But the impending crash likely won’t all cities in the same way. Some areas of the country could get hit hard, facing up to 40% price declines. But others are likely much more secure and could continue to see appreciation, even during a broader US Housing Market Crash.
Home buyers, renters, and real estate investors who want to find out the risk factors for a Housing Crash in their city should track the following 3 metrics for insight into the future of their local housing market.
1) Appreciation Acceleration: how much home price appreciation has increased in the last year compared to the previous year. Markets like Boise, Austin, and Phoenix have seen big surges in appreciation. This is worrisome given historical data from the 2008 Housing Crash which suggests markets with rapid appreciation could face big price declines in the future.
2) Sales Velocity: how many homes are sold in a market each year. The more homes are sold relative to the existing housing stock (aka the higher the sales velocity), the more likely prices in market are being influenced by speculation. Cities across Florida (Cape Coral, Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville) have the highest sales velocity.
3) Economic Weakness: cities with high levels of job losses will likely face greater risk of declines in home prices and rents, especially with the foreclosure and eviction moratoriums expiring. New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Las Vegas, and Orlando have job losses nearing -10% over the last 15 months. Meanwhile, states like Idaho and Utah actually have job gains.
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0:00 Your City: to Crash or Not to Crash?
1:39 Appreciation Acceleration in the US
4:14 What’s Better: Accelerating or Stable?
5:17 Lessons from the 2006 Housing Bubble
7:31 Accelerating Appreciation = Bad News
10:13 2nd Data Point: Sales Velocity
12:34 Low Sales Velo = More Stability
14:18 Fundamental v. Skeptical Markets
16:08 LONG-TERM Investor? One Caveat
18:08 Best v. Worst Job Loss Markets
20:30 3 Metrics to Track!
#HousingCrash #HousingBubble #RealEstate .
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2021 Housing Crash in YOUR CITY? Look at these 3 Metrics….
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34 comments
What do you think about the Boise market?
Please take a deep dive on the Raleigh Durham area. We've seen 30-40% appreciation since January of this year and even more vs a year ago.
Virginia please!!
Yikes -the NE has high unemployment and high home appreciation. Recipe for disaster unless the economy rebounds. Good info thanks for putting this out there.
If you have time could I have the info for El Paso, Tx?. Thank you in advance.
What do you say about Spokane , WA?
The housing market is going crazy everywhere, but real estate is a great place to invest my money right now. It can double every penny 🙂
What can you tell me about the Jacksonville, Florida area for a home purchase?
Hi, I rent in Austin, TX circle c ranch I am wondering if this particular area is a good buy because of its location and how beautiful the area is. It almost feels impossible for this neighborhood to have a significant price decline like pre pandemic. Thanks
Well put. Thx.
I am expecting Seattle will be crash soon this year
North Carolina housing Market has accelerated extremely high …. I’m wonder if this will continue? Specifically the Wake and Johnston County area’s
Excellent work on the thorough analysis. I live in the Atlanta area and I'm an Investor. Are there certain areas that will burst during the upcoming market crash that I should invest in or areas to avoid. Appreciate your input, thanks!
Can you cover Renton, Near Seattle?
Philadelphia, PA. We’re so up in the air it’s hard to tell
Ogden, UT. Just subscribed. Love the video. I would love to know how you are accessing the data you are using from Zillow. Is that public ally available to look at?
I would love to get your feedback on San Clemente, CA market if we were to buy a home there. thanks so much
So utah is a secure investment cool
Not very accurate when not considering the major difference between the 2007 bubble and today – home inventory, supply deficit etc
Interesting and well done video. My only question is the cities that stay neutral is that partly because they are poorer and not an ideal place to live. Austin seems to be very high on the list due to all the new high tech businesses moving there.
Great informational video. How did you create these graphs? Did you use data from the Census Bureau? Would love to learn.
Thank you for all the work you put in each video and truly presenting the date like it is. I'm intrested in the Stanislaus county in CA. With the work from home being possible for all the tech giants in the bay area, our county has been really affected by the Bay Area buyers purchasing the homes way way above listed price. Pricing out those who live in this county.
Houston, TX please.
Some areas present a combination of pros and cons that make it difficult to assess risk in the real estate market, Denver for example which as seen above average appreciation and velocity but has experienced steady, above average population and job growth. Another area I have some experience with is central New Jersey which is in a state with above average job loss, population loss, etc. but probably lower velocity and acceleration. Furthermore, it may be benefiting from people fleeing New York. How do you look at locales like that?
Yes me and my wife live in Freeport Florida which seems to be growing pretty rapidly the price on housing has gone up pretty much we are trying to buy our first home some people are telling us this is a good time to buy summer telling us to hold off that eventually the housing prices will drop off we love your advice and your opinion on this part of the Florida thank you
Great work! Very informative and detailed analysis. Is there a website I can lookup the data sets for the city I live in (Honolulu, Hawaii)?
Bay Area resident here… I notice San Jose has a 5.1% sales velocity; although, they are pretty high on appreciation during the past couple of years — Would you steer clear of that area like you mentioned in your SF video? Thanks, your videos are tremendous.
I was cringing waiting for #3 then let out a huge sig,, JOBS is my #1 indicator of good place to buy to flip or my gig buy rentals. Job GROWTH is what causes tenants to keep a job, get a job, bring new tenants to an area. The SE is a huge jobs generator; Atlanta, Chattanooga, Charlotte, Knoxville, a few other jobs centers.
Your analysis is very detailed. Thank you for your work and effort. Could you do a deep dive on Denver Metro area specifically south Denver i.e Greenwood Village, Highland Ranch, Littleton and Parker Area. Specifically with migration, new companies moving to Denver area like Palantir etc. Thanks
How about Chicago?
I'm choosing between 2 small cities to move into, myrtle beach, SC, and Boca Raton FL, can you help me?
Would you recommend renting in Fort Mils SC instead of buying for now and do you see housing prices coming down in SC in the future?
Albuquerque, New Mexico
I think accelerated price appreciation is a factor but other factors to consider is what cities people are moving to and also the fact that monetary inflation is also a thing this time around. I don’t remember the price of commodities going up in 2008 as it did 2020.
The reason the housing market went up 2008 is not the reason it went up 2020.